Higher U.S. gasoline prices and a slowing economy will cut into U.S. oil demand through the summer driving season much more than previously thought, the government’s top energy forecasting agency said on Tuesday.
“Based on projections of weak economic growth and record high crude oil and product prices, (petroleum) consumption is projected to decline,” the Energy Information Administration said in its latest monthly forecast.
Thanks to rising crude oil costs, U.S. drivers will pay an average $3.66 a gallon for gasoline this summer, up 12 cents from earlier estimates, the Energy Department’s analytical arm said.
Pump prices are expected to peak at $3.73 a gallon in June, 11 cents more than previously projected, the agency said.
Gasoline prices will be higher due to expensive crude oil, which the EIA said it now expected will average $110 a barrel this year, about $9 more than the agency forecast last month.
The price of U.S. crude hit a record $122.73 a barrel on Tuesday at the New York Mercantile Exchange, as the national price for regular, self-service gasoline set a new of record $3.61 a gallon this week.
High fuel costs, along with a sputtering economy, will take an even bigger bite out of gasoline consumption, which was already forecast to decline from last summer’s levels.
“The gasoline (situation) we’re facing here in the U.S. is not something we’ve seen in 20 years, where we have these high prices on top of a weak economy,” said EIA analyst Tancred Lidderdale. “Both are unquestionably taking their toll.”
The EIA said it expected total petroleum demand, which includes gasoline, diesel fuel and jet fuel, in the current quarter to be 90,000 barrels a day less than last month’s forecast and down 170,000 barrels a day compared to the second quarter of last year.
Petroleum consumption in the upcoming third quarter was revised down by 100,000 barrels a day, increasing just 10,000 barrels per day from the third quarter of 2007, the EIA said.
For all of 2008, demand will decline by 190,000 barrels a day, 90,000 barrels per day more than the agency said in last month’s forecast.
By contrast, world oil consumption is forecast to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day this year, with most of the increase in demand led by China, Middle East oil producing countries, Russia, Brazil and India, the EIA said.
Lidderdale said oil demand is strong in China because of its growing economy while OPEC member countries in the Middle East are flush with dollars earned from oil exports, and therefore are on a spending and building spree, using more energy in the process.
Oil demand in the major industrialized countries is projected to change little this year, with higher oil use in Europe offsetting declining consumption in the United States, the agency said.
A combination of rising global oil demand, fairly normal crude inventories and low unused oil production capacity will provide “firm support” for petroleum prices, the EIA said.
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